Report
Patrick Artus

What are the structural trend breaks to watch out for after the COVID crisis?

The possible structural trend breaks that we believe are the most important to watch out for and assess after the COVID crisis are: The functioning of the labour market: will wage earners’ bargaining power increase, leading to faster wage increases and inflation? Will people permanently leave the labour market? The structure of demand and production: will the weight of industry recover permanently in relation to services, which would have significant effects on the nature of jobs and on commodity consumption? Obviously, the acceleration of the energy transition, with significant effects on the structure of jobs, energy prices and the location of industry; The digitalisation of the economy, with possibly negative effects on the nature of jobs and on inequality; Central banks' behaviour; after the crisis, are they even more obliged than before to use fiscal dominance and to maintain an expansionary monetary policy to ensure public debt sustainability? Fiscal policies: would it be possible to return to more conservative policies after COVID, when the message during the COVID crisis was that there were no limits on fiscal deficits and the need for additional public spending is very high ?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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