Report
Patrick Artus

What can prevent a very high public debt ratio from being dangerous?

A very high public debt ratio is dangerous: If it leads to an expected loss of fiscal solvency for governments, which would lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates; Conversely, if it attracts savings at the expense of the private sector, which leads to crowding out of private-sector investment. A high public debt ratio is not dangerous if both these conditions are met: It is absorbed by central banks thanks to a monetisation of public debt; but the danger then becomes that of excessive monetary creation; Private-sector savings increase ( ex ante ) relative to private-sector investment, which generates savings available to finance a higher public debt level without a rise in interest rates, which is what happened in the wake of the subprime crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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