What consequences if the retirement age remains unchanged?
In France, public opinion strongly rejects both an increase in the retirement age and a reduction in the level of pensions. What will happen if economic policy decisions follow these demands from public opinion (we look at the period 2020-2040)? Per capita GDP will be reduced by the fall in the weight of employment in the total population; if productivity gains remain as low as today, and since the employment rate of 20-59 year olds is already high, there would be only a 0.3% per year increase in real per capita GDP from 2020 to 2040; The tax burden on the "young" (on the working population) will increase to pay pensions which will reduce the ir per capita income; from 2020 to 2040, the ir per capita income would increase by only 0.4% per year, with a loss of 0.3 percentage point per year due to the increase in levies that finance pensions.