Report
Patrick Artus

What consequences if the retirement age remains unchanged?

In France, public opinion strongly rejects both an increase in the retirement age and a reduction in the level of pensions. What will happen if economic policy decisions follow these demands from public opinion (we look at the period 2020-2040)? Per capita GDP will be reduced by the fall in the weight of employment in the total population; if productivity gains remain as low as today, and since the employment rate of 20-59 year olds is already high, there would be only a 0.3% per year increase in real per capita GDP from 2020 to 2040; The tax burden on the "young" (on the working population) will increase to pay pensions which will reduce the ir per capita income; from 2020 to 2040, the ir per capita income would increase by only 0.4% per year, with a loss of 0.3 percentage point per year due to the increase in levies that finance pensions.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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