Report
Patrick Artus

What could change the global savings-investment equilibrium?

One of the causes of the very low level of long-term interest rates is the rise in the global savings rate, which shows a situation ( ex ante ) of excess savings over investment. For long-term interest rates to rise sharply, which would trigger a debt crisis and a sharp fall in asset prices, the excess global savings would have to disappear. Is this possible? Population ageing normally reduces savings; but this has not happened in Japan and there may be an inheritance motive; The transformation of the global economy into a service economy ought to reduce investment needs; but new investment needs will appear due to the energy transition. So there are several uncertainties; it would be very useful to know how long the situation of excess global savings will continue.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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