Report
Patrick Artus

What could make the scenario of a very strong growth recovery too optimistic?

Currently available forecasts show very strong growth (in the United States, Europe, China and the world) thanks to the gradual lifting of health restrictions. In this Flash we seek to identify the risks of this scenario being too optimistic. These are: Continued disruption of economies by periodic resurgence of COVID or by the emergence of new variants of the virus; Continued high precautionary savings by households, which would therefore not consume the forced savings accumulated during the crisis; Lasting weakness in companies' investment due to the increase in their debt and their determination to protect themselves against the risk of a future crisis; Increasing obsolescence of labour force skills due to the shift in economies’ sectoral structure, particularly if there is no complete normalisation of demand in the sectors currently in trouble.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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