Report
Patrick Artus

What does structural unemployment depend on?

A major concern is that the COVID crisis will lead to a sharp rise in structural unemployment in OECD countries, for example because the business sectors that create jobs are very different from those that destroy them, or simply because the severity of the recession, or because corporate debt is increasing. We then try to identify the determinants of structural unemployment in OECD countries. Possibilities include: As after the subprime crisis , the distortion of the sectoral structure of the economy, and the severity of the recession; Labour costs; Skills; Corporate taxes; Labour market regulations; Corporate debt. A comparison of OECD countries shows a positive correlation between the unemployment rate and: A decline in the weight of manufacturing employment; Growth variability; Real wage growth relative to productivity; Low skills; A high corporate tax burden; Strict labour market regulations. This is bad news if the COVID crisis leads to a loss of manufacturing jobs and increases growth variability.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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