Report
Patrick Artus

What does the fall in expected inflation in the euro zone reveal?

While the unemployment rate in the euro zone is low, hiring difficulties are significant and wages and labour costs are accelerating, expected inflation is declining. What can account for this decline in expected inflation in the euro zone? Correct expectations of future economic developments; it would take either a steep rise in unemployment slow down wages, or a rise in productivity gains, or an additional deterioration in euro-zone companies ’ lack of pricing power prevent ing them from passing their costs onto their prices; A deflationary effect of the zero interest rate monetary policy, similar to neo-Fisherism: very low nominal interest rates lead to a decline in expected inflation, either through the neo-Fisherian mechanism, or through pessimism that leads to a very expansionary monetary policy.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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