WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR THE TOURISM SECTOR?

Despite the envisaged reopening of Europe’s internal and external borders, the European tourism sector will be hit this year by a historic fall in the number of international tourists. According to Tourism Economics, international tourist flows are expected to decrease by 39% in Europe in 2020 compared with 2019. International tourism accounted for 35% of tourism expenditure in Europe in 2019 and exports of tourism services generated receipts of up to €428 billion at the European Union level, i.e. 2.6% of GDP. Given the sector’s importance to the economy, the impact of the slowdown in international tourism on the economies that receive the most international tourists, namely France, Spain and Italy, will be crucial. We are also interested in the breakdown of these effects on the various tourism-related sectors (accommodation, air transport, retail, cultural and recreational activities, etc.). We examine the various risks that could weigh on each country according to the characteristics of its tourism industry (the shares of domestic and foreign tourism, the characteristics of the accommodation supply, average spending per head, geographical origin of visitors, etc.).