Report
Patrick Artus

What does the weight of public spending mean?

The weight of public spending in GDP differs enormously between OECD countries: in 2021, from 25% in Ireland to 59% in France. A high weight of public spending in GDP means that the government plays an important role in choosing the allocation of national income (to a particular type of public spending, to support a particular type of economic agent, etc.). We can then have two views of the effect of a high weight of public spending: A positive view: the government knows better than the private sector which types of spending and investment are useful for the economy in the medium term, the government internalises externalities (climate, economic, etc.); A negative view: the government does not know which investment projects are efficient, its choices are biased by short-term political objectives and by lobbies; a high tax burden creates negative distortions. Comparing OECD countries, we can then simply look at what the weight of public spending is correlated to: Growth, productivity gains, employment rates? Life expectancy? Inequality, poverty? The weight of industry? Labour force skills, the efficiency of the school system? Research and innovation? Fertility? We see that a high weight of public spending is associated with: Low growth, productivity gains and employment rates; Low income inequality (after redistributive policies) and a small proportion of the population below the poverty line. Countries with a high weight of public spending have therefore chosen equity over efficiency.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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