What explains the divergence of the public debt ratio between Germany and France?
Public debt ratios were similar in France and Germany until 2010 and have diverged since then. Today, the public debt ratio is 115% of GDP in France and 70% of GDP in Germany. What accounts for this divergence between the two countries’ public debt ratios? At first sight, we can consider: Stronger growth in Germany than in France, a gap between long-term interest rates and growth that has been more favourable to Germany than to France; this is not the case, on the contrary; A faster increase in certain types of public spending in France than in Germany; A reduction in the tax burden in France compared with Germany (and in certain taxes); this is not the case overall. The relevant explanation for the divergence between France’s and Germany’s public debt ratios is essentially the divergence between France’s and Germany’s public pension spending.