Report
Patrick Artus

What fiscal rules for the euro zone?

In November 2019, French president Emmanuel Macron called into question the rule limiting fiscal deficits to 3% of GDP. But if this rule, for which there is no theoretical justification, is abandoned, it would need to be replaced by another fiscal rule, as many euro-zone countries (Germany in particular) demand one. What could a new fiscal rule entail? Like for local authorities, public debt could be limited to financing public investment, and debt financing of current fiscal deficits could be prohibited; But the rule should go further: public investments that give rise to a fiscal deficit should only be permitted when they are sufficiently efficient that they generate enough additional GDP and tax revenues to cover the cost of the debt ; Crowding-out effects must also be considered: if there is more debt-financed public investment in the euro zone, could it lead to less private investment? This is unlikely at present: If, in the event savings are scarce, public investment is limited to investments that are sufficiently efficient , generat ing higher returns than private sector investment; Since the euro zone has a significant savings surplus, which i s currently len t to the rest of the world.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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