Report
Patrick Artus

What happened in 2013-2014 when long-term interest rates rose unexpectedly?

Today, all decisions (borrowing, asset purchases) are being made in an environment of long-term interest rates that are very low and expected to remain so. This raises the question as to what effects would result from an unexpected rise in long-term interest rates (debt crisis, fall in asset prices). To shed light on this question, we look at what happened when the Federal Reserve’s announcements led to an unexpected rise in long-term interest rates in 2013-2014. The result was: Capital outflows from emerging countries, triggering exchange rate depreciation and a fall in growth; No effect on corporate or household defaults; No effect on credit spreads; No effect on share prices; A slowdown in private sector credit; No effect on growth in the United States or the euro zone; No effect on the situation of banks. Altogether, the unexpected rise in long-term interest rates in 2013-2014 led to only two effects: capital outflows from emerging countries and a slowdown in credit.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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