What happened to inflation after the subprime crisis?
Today, as the COVID crisis comes to an end, we are seeing a surge in inflation in the United States, and to a lesser degree in the euro zone. An important question now is whether this surge in inflation is transitory or permanent. We will then examine the dynamics of inflation (and the determinants of inflation) in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 subprime crisis. Did we see the same rise in inflation at the end of the crisis, for what reasons, and what happened to that inflation later on? We see that after the subprime crisis, there was only transitory inflation (2010-2011), mainly due to the rise in commodity prices, followed by low inflation due to weak growth in unit labour costs. After the COVID crisis, the dynamics of commodity prices, wages and unit labour costs are the same as after the subprime crisis. We can therefore also expect temporarily high inflation (end-2020, 2021) followed by a fairly long period of low inflation.