Report
Patrick Artus

What happens to risk premia when monetary policy drives down risk-free interest rates?

The direct effect of an expansionary monetary policy is to drive down risk-free interest rates since central banks essentially buy risk-free bonds. So what is the effect of a fall in risk-free interest rates on risk premia? There are two mechanisms that have opposite effects on risk premia: The "risk channel" of monetary policy: since risk-free interest rates are very low, investors switch to risky assets which drives down risk premia; this is what we are seeing for High Yield corporate bonds and bank bonds; The "caution channel": if investors remain cautious about risky assets, the fall in risk-free interest rates will be offset by a rise in the risk premium, which prevents prices of risky assets from rising; this is what we are seeing for equities. So generally speaking, there is no certainty that an expansionary monetary policy will drive down risk premia.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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