What happens to the equilibrium when a fiscal deficit is generated and there is a supply problem?
In the United States, France and Italy, the fiscal deficit will increase markedly in 2019 at a time when these countries face a supply problem: in the United States there is full employment; in France and Italy, unemployment is close to structural unemployment, cost competitiveness is deteriorating , and production capacity is insufficient . Two equilibria are then possible: An equilibrium where the fiscal deficit increases while there is a supply problem will lead to a deterioration in foreign trade , which can be financed by additional external debt . This is the case with the United States; An equilibrium where it is difficult to borrow abroad (in France and Italy, non-residents are sellers of the country’s assets), and where the increase in the fiscal deficit will therefore trigger a crowding-out effect, i.e. a decline in private sector domestic demand identical to the increase in the fiscal deficit . This should be the case in France and Italy .