Report
Patrick Artus

What happens to the equilibrium when a fiscal deficit is generated and there is a supply problem?

In the United States, France and Italy, the fiscal deficit will increase markedly in 2019 at a time when these countries face a supply problem: in the United States there is full employment; in France and Italy, unemployment is close to structural unemployment, cost competitiveness is deteriorating , and production capacity is insufficient . Two equilibria are then possible: An equilibrium where the fiscal deficit increases while there is a supply problem will lead to a deterioration in foreign trade , which can be financed by additional external debt . This is the case with the United States; An equilibrium where it is difficult to borrow abroad (in France and Italy, non-residents are sellers of the country’s assets), and where the increase in the fiscal deficit will therefore trigger a crowding-out effect, i.e. a decline in private sector domestic demand identical to the increase in the fiscal deficit . This should be the case in France and Italy .
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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