What happens when GDP falls and the government bears the full income loss?
It is important to examine t he macro-financial equilibrium that will arise in most countries and probably worldwide in 2020: GDP will fall because of the nationwide lockdowns, but government s are running fiscal deficit s to preserve household and corporate incomes. So how does this equilibrium work? It is important to note that: The fiscal deficit will not restore GDP, the fall in which is due to a physical problem (workers are not working) and not to a shortfall of demand; If household and corporate incomes are maintained while GDP falls, there will inevitably be forced savings by households and companies equal to the fiscal deficit , which will not pose a financing problem; Central banks’ intervention (quantitative easing) simply ensures that there is sufficient demand for government bonds , as t he rise in private sector savings may head into other financial asset classes (such as money); At the end of 2020, the crisis will have left in its wake an increase in public debt, absorbed by a combination of the central bank and the private sector and equal in size to the forced savings of the private sector in 2020. If the private sector wants to spend these forced savings after the crisis, it will be possible to reduce the public debt.