What happens when investment needs increase considerably?
We look at the cases of the euro zone and France. Investment needs will increase considerably in these countries, given: Investments related to the energy transition (production and storage of renewable energies, decarbonisation of industry and transport, thermal renovation of buildings and housing); The correction of a housing shortfall; The need for investment in infrastructure (digital technology, transport); The correction of corporate underinvestment. If this huge upward adjustment in investment took place: The euro zone and France would move to a situation of a shortfall in savings, leading to higher real interest rates and normally a depreciation of the exchange rate; At equilibrium, consumption would be lower and the savings rate higher . In this situation , “frugal” consumers are helpful; As a significant portion of this investment offers low financial returns, the return on equity would decline, which is a normal consequence of an increase in capital intensity.