Report
Patrick Artus

What happens when real long-term interest rates are very negative?

The surge in inflation in the United States and the euro zone has not triggered any significant reaction by central banks. This situation will probably continue in the medium term, as central banks want to avoid triggering a debt crisis, increase the employment rate and also encourage investment in the energy transition. Long-term real interest rates will therefore probably remain negative or even very negative for a long time. What are the consequences of this situation? Of course; the possibility of having higher primary fiscal deficits; Stimulation of corporate investment; Continued rapid growth in asset prices (equities, real estate, etc.); Impoverishment of savers in countries where savings are primarily held in the form of bonds; this impoverishment is the flipside to the enrichment of holders of equities and real estate and of all indebted economic agents.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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