Report
Patrick Artus

What happens when the link between risk and risk premium disappears?

We will take two examples of the disappearance of the link between risk and risk premium: In financial markets, risk premia (on corporate bonds, on peripheral euro-zone countries' bonds) no longer compensate for issuer risk. In order to avoid a crisis in the future that would result from the normalisation of risk premia, central banks will be obliged to maintain their policy of squeezing risk premia on a long-term basis. In addition, there is a moral hazard: risky borrowers take advantage of the disappearance of risk premia to take on excessive debt; In labour markets, economic risk is increasingly borne by employees and not by company shareholders, but shareholders still receive the corresponding risk premia. This may discourage labour supply; it may also force governments to provide employees with insurance against economic risks that companies do not provide them with, while receiving the corresponding risk premium. So we see the price to be paid when risk premia do not correspond to the risk taken: Anomalies in behaviour (excessive debt, declining labour supply); Need for public intervention to provide the insurance that ought to be provided by private economic agents.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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