Natixis - What has happened every time energy prices have risen sharply?

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Natixis

Patrick Artus

What has happened every time energy prices have risen sharply?

The COVID crisis and then the war in Ukraine are now leading to a very sharp rise in energy prices. How will this change the growth outlook for OECD countries? To try to answer this question, we look at what has happened in the past whenever energy prices have risen significantly (1974, 1978-79, 2005 - 2008, 2011-2014). We see that these sharp rises in energy prices have always ended in recession, with a decline in real wages, and therefore in consumption, real earnings, and therefore in investment and exports, since this is a global shock.

20/03/2022 1 EN

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Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

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Analysts

Patrick Artus

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What has happened every time energy prices have risen sharply?

Fine-tuning our Fed Call: No need to skip October

Labor market treads water in a choppy sea

Euro area April flash inflation: core inflation unexpectedly rose in April

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