Report
Patrick Artus

What has happened to the crowding-out effect linked to the increase in public debt in OECD countries?

If we look at OECD countries as a whole, we see that their current-account balance has been more or less continuously balanced since 2009: these countries’ internal developments have not been counterbalanced by any external adjustment. In OECD countries, the public debt ratio has risen sharply since the crisis: if it is not offset by an increase in external debt, this rise should be counterbalanced by: Either a corresponding increase in the stock of domestic private savings; Or a crowding-out of a certain type of private capital: productive corporate capital or housing capital. We see that what has balanced the rise in OECD countries’ public debt ratio since the crisis has mainly been a fall in housing investment and capital. Is this really a crowding-out? This is rather a reaction to the excess ive housing investment in the past .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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