Report
Patrick Artus

What have OECD countries that still have a large-scale industry done?

All OECD countries now want to redevelop industry and are talking of reshoring , with the obvious aim of creating skilled, high-productivity and high-wage jobs. This raises the question of what OECD countries that still have a large-scale industry have done. Have they curbed globalisation? Across OECD countries, we compare the weight of industry and the weight of imports from emerging countries. We find no globalisation effect. Do they have low labour costs? We compare the weight of industry and the level of hourly wages in industry. We see that low labour costs are not associated with a high weight of industry. Do they have business-friendly taxes? We compare the weight of industry, the corporate tax burden and the weight of corporate social contributions. We find only a weak effect of tax on the size of industry. Do they have high labour force skills? We compare the weight of industry and the OECD PIAAC survey, which measures skills. We find a significant positive correlation between these two variables. Have they made a significant R&D and corporate modernisation effort? We compare the weight of industry, R&D spending (total, public and private) and the degree of industrial automation. We find a strong positive link between R&D and automation and the weight of industry. Have they benefited from a favourable exchange rate? We compare the weight of industry and the evolution of real trade-weighted exchange rates. We find no correlation between these two variables. Have they also benefited from an uptrend in export market shares? We compare the weight of industry and the evolution of export market shares. We find a positive but weak link between these two variables. All things considered, a high weight of industry seems to be associated primarily with high labour force skills and spending on R&D and automation. Reshoring will therefore require raising skills, spending more on R&D and modernising companies more.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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