WHAT IF BREXIT : The day after

A failure of the negotiations on the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union would cause it to lose free access to the single market, for goods as for services, from 30 March 2019. This unprecedented situation would cause economic chaos with, inter alia, a recession and falling real estate prices in the United Kingdom, and growth would be reduced by nearly one percentage point in the Eurozone. It would also constitute a financial shock that would trigger drastic fluctuations in fixed income markets in a context marked by rising uncertainty and risk perception. In this worst-case scenario, even though the implementation of continuity plans for certain activities is a possibility, the fall in trade in goods and services between the United Kingdom and the EU combined with a gradual end of the regulatory harmonization would have severe impacts, especially on banks, insurance companies, the covered bond market and the automotive sector.