What if euro-zone growth in 2021 is much weaker than currently expected?

The consensus of forecasters expects growth of 5.2% in the euro zone and 6.2% in France for 2021. But does this consensus not overlook many factors that are weakening growth? In particular, these are: The ongoing health crisis in the winter of 2020-2021; The continued rise in unemployment and in corporate defaults at least until the end of the first half of 2021 and, as a result, continued high risk aversion; Companies’ determination to restore their financial situation, leading to weak investment and small pay r a ises and possible offshoring; The reduction in the fiscal deficit in 2021 compared with 2020, even if there are stimulus plans in 2021. There is therefore reason to fear that the shortfall in the level of GDP at the end of 2021 compared with the end - 2019 level will be significantly greater than what is expected today: it could be 5% in the euro zone and 7% in France.