Report
Patrick Artus

What if inflation becomes high in the euro zone in 2021?

We seriously have to consider the possibility that inflation will return in the euro zone in 2021. This is not because of monetary expansion, it is to a certain degree because of wage increases in certain sectors, it is not yet because of reshoring at this horizon, but it is above all because of the decline in productivity and the increase in unit production costs due to the new health standards taken because of the coronavirus pandemic. A return of inflation in 2021, which is unfortunately likely, would be very bad news: As companies can hardly increase nominal wages, real wages and purchasing power would decline; The ECB would be unable to maintain a large-scale bond purchase programme, especially after the ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court; the peripheral countries’ yield spreads would then widen and there would be a threat of a debt crisis in these countries; The rise in long-term interest rates would dampen the recovery in corporate investment and housing purchases; This would apply not only to consumer prices, but also to new house prices due to the rise in construction costs.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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