Report
What if real wages (the purchasing power of per capita wages) did not rise in the euro zone in 2024?
The consensus scenario for the euro zone in 2024 has the following characteristics: Strong disinflation (the ECB forecasts average inflation of 2.7% in 2024 ); Leading to an increase in the purchasing power of per capita wages (nominal wages are forecast by the ECB to grow by an annual average of 4.6% ); Leading to a recovery in household consumption. But an alternative scenario is possible: With much higher inflation (unit labour costs will rise by more than 4% in 2024 in the euro zone ); And therefore without any increase in the purchasing power of per capita wages. Combined with weak corporate investment, which is negatively affected by the prospect of a decline in activity and by the more unfavourable financial conditions, this alternative scenario would imply very weak growth in 2024 in the euro zone.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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