Report
Patrick Artus

What important issues did we see during the 2008-2009 subprime crisis in the euro zone?

In its origin, the COVID crisis is obviously very different from the subprime crisis. However, we can look at the long-term effects of the subprime crisis on the euro zone to consider the long-term effects of the COVID crisis. We will look at: Changes in the level of GDP and potential growth and in the weight of industry; Changes in households' savings and debt; Changes in corporate investment, employment and corporate debt; Changes in the participation rate and the unemployment rate; Fiscal and monetary policies and government solvency; The situation of banks; Income inequality and poverty, and income distribution. The key messages for the euro zone are then that after a crisis we see: A long-term loss of GDP, investment and employment (six to seven years); a very long-term rise in the unemployment rate (ten years); Deindustrialisation; Household and corporate deleveraging; A deterioration in the situation of banks; There is an irreversible increase in inequality and poverty , and a lasting skewing of income distribution against employees .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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Benito Berber
  • Benito Berber

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