What important issues did we see during the 2008-2009 subprime crisis in the euro zone?
In its origin, the COVID crisis is obviously very different from the subprime crisis. However, we can look at the long-term effects of the subprime crisis on the euro zone to consider the long-term effects of the COVID crisis. We will look at: Changes in the level of GDP and potential growth and in the weight of industry; Changes in households' savings and debt; Changes in corporate investment, employment and corporate debt; Changes in the participation rate and the unemployment rate; Fiscal and monetary policies and government solvency; The situation of banks; Income inequality and poverty, and income distribution. The key messages for the euro zone are then that after a crisis we see: A long-term loss of GDP, investment and employment (six to seven years); a very long-term rise in the unemployment rate (ten years); Deindustrialisation; Household and corporate deleveraging; A deterioration in the situation of banks; There is an irreversible increase in inequality and poverty , and a lasting skewing of income distribution against employees .