What is actually the stance of monetary conditions?
In the United States, the real short-term interest rate (the real Fed Funds rate), deflated by inflation excluding rents imputed to homeowners, is above potential growth; the real long-term interest rate (deflated by the long-term inflation swap) is close to potential growth; the quantity of money (held by non-bank economic agents) has increased by 47% since the start of 2019, while nominal GDP has risen by 33%: overall monetary and financial conditions in the United States are neutral. In the euro zone, the real short-term interest rate (the deposit rate), deflated by inflation excluding the effect of import prices on inflation, is 1.3%; the real long-term interest rate (deflated by the 10-year inflation swap) is 0.8%; potential growth is around 1%.The amount of money (held by non-bank economic agents) has increased by 30% since the start of 2019, while nominal GDP has risen by 22%. Overall, monetary and financial conditions in the euro zone are also broadly neutral.