Report
Patrick Artus

What is actually the stance of monetary conditions?

In the United States, the real short-term interest rate (the real Fed Funds rate), deflated by inflation excluding rents imputed to homeowners, is above potential growth; the real long-term interest rate (deflated by the long-term inflation swap) is close to potential growth; the quantity of money (held by non-bank economic agents) has increased by 47% since the start of 2019, while nominal GDP has risen by 33%: overall monetary and financial conditions in the United States are neutral. In the euro zone, the real short-term interest rate (the deposit rate), deflated by inflation excluding the effect of import prices on inflation, is 1.3%; the real long-term interest rate (deflated by the 10-year inflation swap) is 0.8%; potential growth is around 1%.The amount of money (held by non-bank economic agents) has increased by 30% since the start of 2019, while nominal GDP has risen by 22%. Overall, monetary and financial conditions in the euro zone are also broadly neutral.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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