What is happening in Latin America?
From social crises in Ecuador, Chile and Colombia to the electoral victory of the Peronists and IMF intervention in Argentina and nationalist and ultra-liberal policy in Brazil: political and social instability has made a comeback in Latin America. Such instability generally results from a significant deterioration in the economy. Are there signs of such a deterioration in the Latin American economy? We look at: Growth, potential growth, investment and productivity; Foreign trade, capital flows and the exchange rate; Inflation, imported inflation, terms of trade, purchasing power, inequalities and poverty; Employment and unemployment; Interest rates, credit, fiscal policy and social welfare. So what worrying signs are there? Underinvestment, leading to a shortfall in productivity gains and in potential growth, despite expansionary monetary and fiscal policies; A savings shortfall, leading to an external deficit and capital outflows, giving rise to exchange rate depreciation and imported inflation and wiping out purchasing power gains.