Report
Patrick Artus

What is happening in Latin America?

From social crises in Ecuador, Chile and Colombia to the electoral victory of the Peronists and IMF intervention in Argentina and nationalist and ultra-liberal policy in Brazil: political and social instability has made a comeback in Latin America. Such instability generally results from a significant deterioration in the economy. Are there signs of such a deterioration in the Latin American economy? We look at: Growth, potential growth, investment and productivity; Foreign trade, capital flows and the exchange rate; Inflation, imported inflation, terms of trade, purchasing power, inequalities and poverty; Employment and unemployment; Interest rates, credit, fiscal policy and social welfare. So what worrying signs are there? Underinvestment, leading to a shortfall in productivity gains and in potential growth, despite expansionary monetary and fiscal policies; A savings shortfall, leading to an external deficit and capital outflows, giving rise to exchange rate depreciation and imported inflation and wiping out purchasing power gains.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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