Report
Patrick Artus

What is happening with employment?

We compare the United States, the euro zone and France. In all three cases, companies now report facing major hiring difficulties. And yet there are large differences between the labour market situations in the three countries (regions) : In the United States, the participation rate and the employment rate have fallen markedly since the end of 2019, so it is normal for there to be major hiring difficulties; But in France and the euro zone, the participation rate and the employment rate have risen since the end of 2019, so their hiring difficulties are harder to explain. Understanding this discrepancy requires a look at the sectoral level: where have wage earners gone in France and the euro zone? It is only if there has been a significant transfer of employment from one economic sector to another, as wage earners drop out of some sectors, that it would make sense for there to be major hiring difficulties at the same time as the participation rate has risen. First, we note that demand for labour in the euro zone and France has been increased by the fall in working time per wage earner. We then see the very high dispersion of employment trends between sectors, which shows that wage earners are seeking some sectors and dropping out of others.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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