Report
Patrick Artus

What is most important for emerging countries: International capital flows or commodity prices?

When capital flows out of emerging countries, their situation (this does not apply to China) deteriorates: the capital available to invest is reduced, the exchange rate depreciates and the terms of trade deteriorate, interest rates rise; there is often talk about this key effect of international capital flows to emerging countries. But there is another explanation for growth fluctuations in emerging countries (excluding China): changes in commodity prices, as many emerging countries are commodity producers. We therefore seek to determine the relative weight of capital flows and commodity prices in explaining changes in emerging countries' economic situation. We see that growth in emerging countries depends on both capital flows and commodity prices, but that commodities play a slightly more important role than capital flows.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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