Report
Patrick Artus

What is the case for limiting fiscal deficits and public debt ratios for euro-zone countries?

Until the COVID crisis, the euro-zone countries had agreed to strict fiscal rules: fiscal deficits were capped at 3% of GDP, structural fiscal deficits at 0.5% of GDP; public debt ratios were required to return towards 60% of GDP. The crisis has erased these rules. But should they be reinstated after the crisis? It is important to ask whether there is a serious case to limit fiscal deficits and public debt ratios. The conventional argument cites negative externalities: if a country has an excessive fiscal deficit, this drives up euro interest rates and therefore interest rates in the other countries. This argument makes no sense: it is countries’ sovereign risk premia that rise . Another argument is that a euro-zone country with an excessive fiscal deficit ends up succumbing to a debt crisis, which forces the other countries to prop it up , resulting in another form of negative externality. In fact, the crisis that is triggered is a balance-of-payments crisis: it is important to distinguish a fiscal deficit that is the counterpart of excess domestic savings from one that leads to external debt (like in Greece until 2012). A third argument is that excessive public debt drives up long-term interest rates in the country concerned, and that this forces the ECB to intervene with government bond purchases and money creation: fiscal rules would prevent “fiscal dominance”, i.e. the constraint on monetary policy to ensure fiscal solvency. But if the public debt , even a large one, is the counterpart of excess domestic savings, there is no reason for it to drive up long-term interest rates. Last, there is a legitimate question as to whether the euro-zone countries need an external balance rule as opposed to a fiscal rule. Preventing excessive external debt would prevent balance-of-payments crises and rising long-term interest rates in the event of a high fiscal deficit. Obviously, this would require one to renounce the belief that high capital mobility between the euro-zone countries could permit persistent external deficits to be maintained.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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