What is the direction of the causality: From low interest rates to rising debt, or from rising debt to low interest rates?

We look at OECD countries as a whole. We can then tell two stories: History #1: disinflation and the change in central banks’ behaviour have led to increasingly (nominal and real) low interest rates, which ha ve pushed all economic agents into debt; the causality therefore goes from interest rates to debt; History #2: economic agents have become increasingly indebted (governments to finance rising public spending, households to buy housing, companies to take advantage of higher debt leverage). This has forced central banks to cut interest rates to ensure debt sustainability and prevent debt crises, so the causality goes from debt to interest rates. When comparing trends in debt and interest rates in the United States, the euro zone and Japan, we see: A causality in both directions between real (especially public) debt and real interest rates in the euro zone and Japan; A causality going only from debt to real interest rates in the United States.