What is the maximum cost of the war in Ukraine for the euro zone?

The euro zone would incur the maximum cost of the war in Ukraine if: The rise in energy and agri-food prices is fully borne by households without any government support. This would amount to a cost of 1.7 percentage points of GDP; Imports of Russian oil and natural gas are stopped. This would amount to a cost of 5.9 percentage points of GDP, taking into account potential energy savings; Production in a number of industries (automotive, tyres, metallurgy, etc.) is reduced due to difficulties sourcing raw materials and components. This would amount to a cost of around 1 percentage point of GDP. Altogether, the maximum loss of GDP for the euro zone would be 8.6%. Of course, this figure will never be reached: governments will help households; alternative producers of oil, natural gas and metals will be found.