Report
Patrick Artus

What is the upside potential for equities due to money being reinvested?

In the "portfolio rebalancing" approach, when the money supply has increased rapidly, in the short term the weight of money in wealth increases, but in the medium term the weights of the different assets (money, bonds, equities, real estate, etc.) in wealth must return to normal. This happens when risk aversion declines. We can make this calculation today for the United States and the euro zone: what is the stock market index that corresponds to the rebalancing of the portfolio structure, given the actual money creation and assuming that risk aversion returns to normal? We can estimate that the US stock market index is almost at its equilibrium level, but that the euro - zone index is still 20% below its equilibrium level.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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