What is the worst-case scenario for growth in the euro zone?

Before the war in Ukraine, growth in the euro zone was expected to be slightly higher than 4% in 2022. What is now the worst-case scenario for growth in the euro zone in 2022? It corresponds to a situation where: The euro zone imports no more Russian oil or natural gas. Ex ante , this reduces the amount of available energy by 16.6%. A portion may be offset by imports of oil and natural gas from other countries, but this would only be a small offset; energy efficiency may be improved ( by making energy savings, as Japan did after the Fukushima disaster). But even with these possible offsets, there would be a loss of GDP of around 3 to 4%; Energy and other commodity prices are rising when wage increases have already been decided for 2022. In the worst-case scenario, the loss of real wages is not offset by public transfer payments and leads to a fall in consumption that can be estimated at 3 to 4%, with additional inflation of 4 to 5 percentage points. Altogether, if we combine the two shocks (volume and price), we see that the loss of euro-zone growth for the full year of 2022 could be 5 to 6 percentage points, i.e. more than expected growth.