Report

What kind of growth would the United States have seen if there had been no external borrowing and no immigration since 1990?

We look at what the growth of the US economy would have been since 1990 (from 1990 to 2022, US GDP grew by 12 3 %) if the United States: Had not been able to accumulate external debt since 1989; Had not received any net immigration since 1989. External borrowing has increased US corporate investment and the capital stock, and has led to additional growth of 0.25 percentage point per year; immigration, with immigrants to the United States having a higher level of education than the native-born population, has increased the labour force by an average of 0. 7 percentage point per year since 1990, and has therefore led to additional growth of 0. 6 7 percentage point per year. In all, 30 percentage points of cumulative growth in the United States since 1990 (or 12 3 %) ha ve been due to external borrowing and immigration.
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Natixis
Natixis

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