What level of equilibrium short-term and long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro zone?

Equilibrium short-term interest rates mainly depend on inflation and inflation-driven monetary policy. We believe that equilibrium inflation will be higher than from 2002 to 2007, due to the energy transition, tight labour markets and industrial reshoring. Equilibrium long-term interest rates depend on short-term interest rates, expected inflation and perhaps the imbalance between savings and investment. We therefore believe that short-term interest rates will be higher than from 2002 to 2007, due to additional inflation. We also believe that expected inflation will be higher, and that there will be a shortfall in savings relative to investment, due in particular to investment needs for the energy transition. This leads us to believe that: The 2-year sovereign bond yield will be 3.5 % in the United States and 3.3 % in the euro zone, once inflation has stabilised; The 10-year swap rate will be 5.6 % in the United States and 5.1 % in the euro zone, still at equilibrium.