What mechanisms can lead to low long-term interest rates?

We look at mechanisms that may lead to low long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro zone in late 2021 and 2022. These are: A reversal of the base effects linked to commodity prices, which will now stabilise or even fall slightly, leading to a decline in expected inflation; The weakening of growth in 2022 due to the significant reduction in fiscal deficits and the fall in real wages in 2021 due to inflation; As a result of lower inflation and weaker growth in 2022, the difficulty for central banks to switch to a more restrictive monetary policy; Greater aversion for equity risk, given the high valuation of equities, which will shift part of the liquidity to bond purchases. The previous scenario of a gradual rise in long-term interest rates in 2021 and 2022 must therefore be called into question.