Report
Patrick Artus

What monetary policy to avert a crisis in the euro zone? Raising interest rates in such a way that they remain lower than the average debt interest rate

In a context of very high debt ratios and low potential growth in the euro zone, a sharp rise in interest rates would be very dangerous , in all likelihood triggering a debt crisis. But it would also be very dangerous to keep interest rates as low as they are today, given the risk of bubbles, weakening of financial intermediaries and abnormal squeezing of risk premia. So t he ECB should take a middle road: raise interest rates, but in such a way that the long-term interest rate remains lower than the average interest rate on debt (currently in a range of 1.3%-1.8%): the rise in interest rates would then get the euro zone out of its low-interest-rate trap without worsening the financial situation of borrowers .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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