What new and important long-term features will characterise economies?

Recent years have seen some profound changes to important long-term features of economies . In particular : Population ageing, which will drive a large wedge between growth in the countries most affected by it (Japan, China, Europe, Latin America; these countries can expect to experience slow growth combined with inflation) and growth in the countries least affected by it (United States, India, Africa). The emergence of numerous scarcities (labour, energy, other commodities, etc.), resulting in a more inflationary environment in OECD countries; the scarcity of labour will improve wage earners’ bargaining power. As a result of this more inflationary environment, more restrictive monetary policies on average. In particular, this means that quantitative easing will no longer be used and therefore that asset price bubbles will be much rarer and interest rates will be higher, leading to less expansionary fiscal policies. OECD countries will return to a n equilibrium with monetary cycles linked to inflation, where monetary policy periodically becomes more restrictive to stamp out inflation. The energy transition, which will contribute to the scarcities outlined above (energy, metals) and to inflation, also due to the high price of renewable energy. It will require a huge increase in investment, leading also to the risk of a savings shortfall (which would drive up real interest rates). In contrast, the previous situation was characterised by excess savings. The energy transition will not prevent the appearance of climate disruption (droughts, floods, sea level rise, tornadoes, etc.). The political and ideological division of the world between democratic and non-democratic countries. It is not yet certain whether this will lead to a reduction in trade and financial flows between the two sets of countries. The desire to reindustrialise and reshore production back to OECD countries. It is not at all clear whether this will really lead to deglobalisation and actual reshoring, beyond a few strategic products. The proliferation of the forms of risk that cannot be i nsured by the private sector: armed conflicts, pandemics, cyber risk, climate events, etc. This will result in the government playing a greater role in covering these risks. The emergence of new technologies (artificial intelligence, the metaverse, quantum comput ing , etc.) with myriad applications (healthcare, calculations, new goods and services, etc.). Their effect on productivity, growth and the organisation of work is uncertain. We describe these eight new long-term features of economies and their consequences.