What permanent marks will be left by the war in Ukraine?

Even under the optimistic scenario of a rapid end to the war in Ukraine, it will leave permanent marks, in particular in Europe: The need to rapidly gain energy autonomy (in the short term, diversification of fossil fuel suppliers, acceleration of renewable energy and nuclear power programmes) ; awareness that energy prices will remain high; Increased geographic diversification of value chains and commodity suppliers; Suspiciousness of countries with authoritarian regimes (with the key question of China) , pivoting of investment back to OECD countries; In Europe, the understanding that defence spending is insufficient; L oss of central banks’ inflation-fighting credibility.