What questions for the new President of the ECB in 2020?
We believe that in 2020, the new President of the ECB will have to answer three key questions concerning euro-zone monetary policy: Should the ECB have an objective other than inflation, since euro-zone inflation no longer seems to react to the economic cycle? What are the advantages and drawbacks of zero and negative interest rates, and which of them dominate? Has not the ECB so far underestimated the drawbacks, the undesirable redistributive effects of zero interest rates? Is a rise in interest rates possible, or are zero interest rates irreversible because of the high level of debt accumulated at very low interest rates? The answers to these questions may be contradictory: the ECB may decide to switch to a targeting of the cycle, and may believe that zero interest rates have serious drawbacks, but could be forced to keep them to prevent a debt crisis.