Report
Patrick Artus

What reasoning can be used to defend the idea that gold prices will surge?

Central banks in OECD countries will increase the money supply considerably by monetising fiscal deficits related to the coronavirus crisis. It is well known that in contemporary economies we have to think in terms of portfolio choices: at equilibrium, an increase in the money supply leads to a rise in the prices of other financial or real estate assets. But the current situation is very different from the one that followed the subprime crisis. If we consider the following reasoning: Bond prices can no longer rise (long-term interest rates can no longer fall), whereas the "bond bubble" absorbed most of the money creation in the aftermath of the subprime crisis; It is difficult to imagine a sharp rise in share prices, given the probably lasting rise in risk aversion; Nor do we see any rise in commercial real estate prices (due to the increase in the weight of e-commerce and work from home) or any sharp rise in residential real estate prices (due to the rise in risk aversion leading to a determination to deleverage); Commodity prices (energy, non-precious metals, agricultural commodities) will suffer from the permanent loss of income caused by the crisis, Then the gold price would have to absorb all the increase in the money created, and rise considerably if no other bubble can appear (not even a residential real estate bubble).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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