Report
Patrick Artus

What should be done with the long-lasting private savings surplus that the coronavirus crisis is likely to bring about in the euro zone?

The coronavirus crisis and the resulting long- lasting uncertaint y are likely to result in precautionary private sector savings in the euro zone and a lasting weakness in investment, and therefore to a long-term private sector savings surplus that will even exceed the surplus seen since the subprime crisis in the euro zone. What economic policy should be pursued if there is a massive and long-lasting private savings surplus in the euro zone? Unless there is a corrective economic policy, this savings surplus would, as we have seen since 2012, be lent to the rest of the world, in particular to the United States, which is absurd; Euro-zone countries could absorb this excess savings by running up permanent fiscal deficits; we would then be in a "Japanese-style" situation with a continuous increase in these countries' public debt, which is unlikely; The most appropriate economic policy seems to be massive support for corporate investment combined with the absorption of the excess private savings at the European level, through the financing of a large European (or euro-zone) investment fund.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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