What situation for residential real estate after the crisis?
During the coronavirus crisis, the residential real estate situation is completely abnormal, given the collapse of construction (-88% in France) and in transactions. But how will the residential real estate situation be once the crisis is over? On the one hand, the high risk aversion may discourage borrowing, and therefore curb housing purchases; moreover, we expect a slight yield curve steepening, which is also negative; But on the other hand, the crisis, due to the collapse in prices, may give rise to a permanent decline in savers' and investors' investments in listed financial assets (equities, corporate bonds), and a switch to unlisted financial assets (or those not quoted in high-frequency markets): private equity, infrastructure and also real estate. The total effect of the crisis on the residential real estate market after the crisis is therefore not clear ; there will probably be a fall in household demand for housing occupancy purposes, but an increase in demand for investment purposes.