Report
Patrick Artus

What strategy for public debt ratios in OECD countries? Taxing savers for several decades

Many OECD countries have very high public debt ratios (especially the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, the euro zone as a whole excluding Germany and Japan), and this is the case for the OECD as a whole. If interest rates were not abnormally low relative to the growth rate currently, the fiscal solvency of OECD countries (as a whole) would not be ensured. This issue arises at a time when the current functioning of labour markets has eliminated inflation, and therefore when the inflation tax cannot be used to reduce public debt ratios. To prevent a public debt default, the only strategy is then the one used currently: Central banks keeping interest rates lower than growth for a long time, i.e. financial repression and taxation of government bond holders; This taxation gradually reduces public debt ratios. We then have to understand that for several decades, there will be taxation (not measured in official figures for the tax burden) of savers in OECD countries aimed at preventing a default on the public debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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