Report
Patrick Artus

What to make of Trump’s determination to reduce the US external deficit?

One of Donald Trump’s clear economic policy goals is to reduce the United States’ external deficit with the countries with which it is highest : China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union. The U nited States could reduce its external deficit by import ing less ( achieved with tariffs) or by getting these countries to import more from the United States (like in its agreement negotiated with China). What to make of this policy? It is pointless, as the dollar’s international reserve currency role makes it easy for the United States to finance an external deficit that results from abnormally high domestic demand relative to the country’s export capacity (this was the nature of the de facto agreement in the past between the United States and China); It can only work if the United States has the capacity to produce what it currently imports or to export more. A n assessment of the United States’ productive specialisation shows that today it specialises only in services, intermediate goods and energy. This considerably limits the United States capacity to reduce its external deficit.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch