What uncertainties for the OECD beyond 2023?

We focus not on cyclical questions in OECD countries ( the pace of the return to full employment, the risk of a rise in corporate bankruptcies, etc.), but on structural questions for the period following the economic recovery (2023 and beyond). What are the pertinent questions for analysing this period after 2022? How will productivity gains evolve? Will they be increased by the digitalisation of the economy and working from home or reduced by the fall in investment and the shift in employment towards unsophisticated services jobs? What will central banks do? Exit their highly expansionary monetary policies, with the risk of triggering a financial crisis, or keep these policies in place, with the risk of driving up asset prices even further? Could inflation return? Potential structural causes of a return of inflation include population ageing, a change to labour market rules, the energy transition and industrial reshoring. Resurgent inflation would drive up interest rates, leading again to the risk of a financial crisis. Will OECD countries manage to conduct policies (for investment, education and skills) that lift potential growth sufficiently so that there can be growth-led deleveraging? If not, what will happen with the debt? Can the energy transition and the preservation of biodiversity take place at the desired pace with sufficient investment and technological innovation without a loss of growth or job destruction? Will population ageing have the expected effects on growth, savings, inflation, interest rates, etc.?