Report
Patrick Artus

What will be the lasting traces of the 2020 recession?

The decline in GDP in 2020 caused by the coronavirus crisis (probably at least -8% for OECD countries) is far worse than that seen during the subprime crisis. What lasting effects on behaviour can such a shock have? Economic agents will normally try to protect themselves against the risk of such a serious crisis recurring, which implies: For households, deleveraging, and therefore a further decline in purchases of housing and durable goods; For companies, accumulation of cash reserves and deleveraging, and therefore a decline in spending (wages, investment); For banks, the holding of even larger capital; For investors, a reduction in exposure to listed assets. Governments should also prepare for a more serious recession, but this would require them to have fiscal space, which is unlikely.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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