What will be the lasting traces of the 2020 recession?
The decline in GDP in 2020 caused by the coronavirus crisis (probably at least -8% for OECD countries) is far worse than that seen during the subprime crisis. What lasting effects on behaviour can such a shock have? Economic agents will normally try to protect themselves against the risk of such a serious crisis recurring, which implies: For households, deleveraging, and therefore a further decline in purchases of housing and durable goods; For companies, accumulation of cash reserves and deleveraging, and therefore a decline in spending (wages, investment); For banks, the holding of even larger capital; For investors, a reduction in exposure to listed assets. Governments should also prepare for a more serious recession, but this would require them to have fiscal space, which is unlikely.